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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Florida International vs Florida Atlantic
Florida International
+14½ -110 at Bovada
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

QB Jason Driskel has been a stabilizing force leading the Owls to excellent offensive output in their past eight games (45,31,38,58,69,42,30,48). Driskel only has six TD passes to his credit, but does have the ability to hand the ball off to RB Devin Singletary who has 1,360 rushing yards and 22 TDs on the ground. FAU likes to run and then kill you with passing plays and that explains their excellent offensive production and horrible time of possession ranking (#126 FBS). FIU is not the kind of defense that is going to create a ton of problems for opposing offenses (#10 C-USA in yards per play allowed). 

This feels like a game in which the talent differential is closer than you think.

Florida International +14.5

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Rutgers vs Indiana
UNDER 47½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

It looks like QB Richard Lagow will get the call this week to try and help the Hoosiers into bowl game contention. Lagow does not provide the mobility of Peyton Ramsey, but does have a powerful arm. Accuracy has been a bit of an issue (59%; 6 INT) but he has a really good receiving group. Indiana is ranked #12 in the Big 10 in rushing yards and #13 in yards per play and are going up against a a very capable Rutgers defense.

The QB situation on the other side of the ball is rough (6 TD passes all year), but the good news is that the running game continues to work well. Their 1-2-3 RB combo has over 1300 yards and 12 TDs and should be able to do some work vs the Hoosiers (#9 Big 10 rush defense; #8 YPC allowed). Indiana will be able to shut down the passing game and are very good on 3rd downs (#15 FBS). It feels like tough sledding for Rutgers vs an underrated defense. The only teams ahead of Indiana in yards per play defense in the Big 10 are Wisconsin, Penn St, Michigan and Ohio St. Good company.

Rutgers is giving max effort on defense and their offense is predicated on running the ball and limiting mistakes. Throw in the possibility of less than ideal weather (nothing horrible; but not balmy) and this feels like a decent under play.

Under 47.5

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Chiefs vs Giants
UNDER 46½ -115 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Subscriber pick.

Under 46.5

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Bengals vs Broncos
Bengals
+2½ +100 at Bovada
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Subscriber pick.

Bengals +2.5

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Eagles vs Cowboys
Eagles
-4 -110 at 5Dimes
Play Type: Top Premium

Last year the Eagles got slowed down by the bye week, but the Cowboys are in trouble and everyone should focus on their injury report. Without Sean Lee, this defense gets shredded and gives up more than 5 YPC. Without Tyron Smith, Prescott faces pressure all game long. Without Zeke, the offense misses an important element. If the Eagles play up to their strengths, they should roll the Cowboys.

Eagles -4

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Patriots vs Raiders
Patriots
-6½ -116 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

Not only do I believe that the Pats are 6.5 points better than the Raiders, I also believe they show them what a real playoff team is.

The Raiders come off their bye, but they stay at Oakland all week to prepare for the game. The Pats played in Denver in high elevation and they stay the week in Colorado Springs (6,000 ft) in the Air Force facility to prepare for the game in Mexico (7,200 ft). That’s very smart by Bill Belichick and a major advantage for New England. The Raiders prepare for the game at 43 ft elevation. The slow Pats defense held 6 of 9 teams to 20 points or less and the other three teams (KC, HOU, CAR) have QBs who can create plays with their legs and play in offenses that can create in space.

The Raiders are a more static offense with a QB who doesn’t want to hold the ball. Belichick will have his defense ready – we might see a lot of three-men rushes. Raiders defense is no matchup for the Patriots and their No. 1 ranked offense.

Pats should roll a minor opponent on a neutral field with good preparation. Pats -6.5 it is.

Patriots -6.5

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Jaguars vs Browns
UNDER 37½ -125 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

From a numbers standpoint, Browns were the right side last week, but they beat themselves again. 6 red zone trips and they managed to lose by 14 – wow. That coaching staff seems to be inept, that’s why I stop playing them even though I lean them again this week. 7.5 points are too many in a good matchup. I played the Under, as I believe it’s a much better option this week.

First of all, the weather forecast says it’s gonna be around 21 mph winds with as high as 25 mph. Games with 20+ mph of winds result in an average scoring total of 35. The weather condition that affects totals the most is wind, not rain or snow. In snow or rain, offenses aren’t forced to change their gameplan, because we pitches favor the offenses. It’s easier to change directions forwards than backwards or sidewards. Without wind, passes have the same velocity and trajectory in wet conditions as in dry conditions. Some coaches just think they need to run more in wet conditions. With wind it gets tricky and the magic number is 20mph. When you throw the ball in heavy winds, you cannot be as accurate as normal, because the force of the wind has such a high impact on the trajectory of the pass. A few inaccurate throws because of wind can kill drives. The first windy game of the year, [email protected], ended 17-3 and both QBs combined for 39/70 (55.7%) for 348 yds for 4.9 YPA when their season average is 61% and 62% completions and 6+ YPA. Last year’s game [email protected] was a wind game and ended 24-9. QBs combined for 44/77 343 yards, 4.5 YPA. With the Jaguars and Browns, we get a matchup that has a high probability of ending below 37.5 even without wind.

The Jaguars have a phenomenal defense and improved against the run with the addition off Marcell Dareus. The Jaguars have a run-first offense with a bad matchup against the best run defense in the league. Take away the run and the Jaguars offense will be completely limited this Sunday. But so will be the Browns defense also, because they won’t move the ball on the Jaguars, no way.

It wouldn’t surprise me if we didn’t see an offensive touchdown this week and the game ends somewhere around 17-12 with a defensive score. Loving the Under here.

Under 37.5

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Ravens vs Packers
Ravens
-2 -106 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

This is a must-win game for the Ravens. They are 4-5 and one win away from the AFC wild card (Bills). Steelers, Patriots and Chiefs are too far away, Jaguars and Titans hold the tiebreaker against the Ravens. If they want to play in January, they gotta focus on the last wild card. They know that the Bills have a ceiling of 8-8/9-7 with games vs LAC, IND & MIA (2x) left. They simply have to win this game to put themselves into a good position for the wild card race.

The Packers come off a surprising divisional win, whereas the Ravens are off their bye and have one day extra rest before the next game at Houston on Monday. John Harbaugh is one of the better post-bye coaches in the league, going 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS and winning by 8.9 PPG off a bye since being the HC in Baltimore. The final score in the Packers/Bears game last Sunday is a little bit misleading. The Bears missed Danny Trevathan badly against the run, they had bad tackling and produced stupid flags in the secondary which guided some big plays for GB and on top of that, they had a sure touchdown that Benny Cunningham fumbled into the end zone for a touchback. John Fox challenged the play and the touchback was the result. Without a challenge, they would have had the ball at the goal line.

The Ravens live and die with their defense, but that should be enough to win here. The Ravens defense is stout on a very easy schedule. They have the ability to make below average offenses look bad. Their revamped secondary with Tony Jefferson, a healthy Jimmy Smith, rookie Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr has been playing very well. And Jimmy Smith just got much healthier during the bye, he missed lots of snaps over the last few games. NT Brandon Williams is arguably their most important player, but he was injured from weeks 3-6. This is a horrible matchup for a Packers offense that is bottom-10 material with Brett Hundley and just lost their leading RB Aaron Jones for 3-6 weeks and Ty Montgomery is banged up with a ribs injury. Even Hundley has a bad harmstring. Green Bay will struggle to run efficiently which sets up difficult passing situations for Hundley all game long. The Ravens secondary can just sit back and win their matchups against an average receiving corps.

Mike McCarthy has shown us in 3 games that he can’t work out a game plan that maximizes the potential of his offense and surprises opposing defenses. He is completely dependent on Aaron Rodgers. I am seeing bad production and 2-3 turnovers by the Pack offense. This is a dream matchup for Baltimore. Yes the Ravens offense has struggled, however they are getting healthier and don’t face a good defense at Lambeau. Danny Woodhead comes back who is a nice addition in the short passing game, just for instance. Ravens have a lot of passes for negative yardage where Woodhead will help. Another key is that there are around 20 miles of winds expected on Sunday, so the game is going to be run-heavy and that’s where you love having the Ravens defense on your ticket. If their defense plays like they are supposed to do, the offense is going to have an easy job. The Ravens cannot afford to lose this game and I don’t believe they will. 

Ravens -2

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Rams vs Vikings
Vikings
-2 -109 at BMaker
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

Despite the Rams 7-2 record, I am skeptical regarding the rest of the season. The Rams played a soft schedule thus far. Here are their wins: blowout vs Colts with Scott Tolzien, close shootout win vs Niners, close shootout win vs Cowboys, “quality win” vs Jaguars with two special teams scores, blowout vs Cards, blowout vs the Giants who quit, blowout vs a decimated Texans team with Tom Savage. Their two losses are against a healthy Redskins team and the Hawks. If we consider the Texans a bottom-10 team without Watson, the Rams have 5 wins vs bottom-10 teams and 2 wins vs Dallas and Jaguars (14 points by special teams). They were actually outgained by total yards and yards per play in both games. That isn’t too impressive, is it?

Now they go to the Bank, one of the toughest places to play in the NFL right now. The Vikings defense is impressive and is something the Rams haven’t faced this year besides Seattle and Jacksonville. In those games, the Rams scored 10 and 13 offensive points. If you count the fumble touchback by Gurley, they scored 17 and 13 vs two top-10 defenses. Purple Pain has held every team at 19 points or below at home this year and they would be unbeaten if they didn’t fumble the ball away 3 times vs Detroit in the game Dalvin Cook got hurt. This is a complete challenge for the Rams and I expect them to struggle the same way they struggled against the Hawks and Jaguars. If you watch the Rams offense, one thing gets obvious: Jared Goff almost never needs to throw into tight windows/coverage as his receivers are just schemed wide-open and he has a lot of time in the pocket. Whitworth is going to play against the candidate for DPOY, Everson Griffen. Griffen won’t win a lot of matchups, but he will send more pressure from Goffs blind side than the QB is used to get in other games. On the other side, Danielle Hunter has an intriguing matchup against Rob Havenstein who still struggles a bit in pass protection. The run defense of Minnesota is really good as well as their red zone defense. Jared Goff will be forced to make much more difficult throws than usual. A great matchup for the Rams is Robert Woods vs Trae Waynes, but Goff still needs to throw with anticipation under pressure to exploit that certain matchup consistently and I don’t think he is able to do that.

I am seeing an equal offensive output as they had vs Seattle and Jacksonville. Vikings should just score enough on offense to win that game on the back of their defense.

Vikings -2

SERVICE BIO

Age: 29

Born: Hong Kong

Bio: Ricky Tran's destiny has always been sports betting. The "Asian Assassin" was exposed to the horse racing and gaming industry from a very early age through his family's involvement. It was there that Ricky learned the basics of handicapping and wagering. His experience was soon being applied to all forms of sports betting and he started to see a great deal of success at an early age.

Ricky initially viewed sports, like most, as a fan. However, he soon found himself being more challenged by the gaming aspect. Being a fan was fine, but being able to break down a game's inner workings and nuances, with an unbiased and analytical mind, would give him the advantage he needed to enter the sports betting arena. Today, after several years of highly successful sports betting, Ricky Tran has the the type of lifestyle that most can't even imagine. Ask around and you'll learn that Tran is widely regarded as one of the brightest stars of the new generation of handicapping. 

There are many choices out there for those looking to find just the right handicapper. If you're looking for "locks" and "can't lose systems," Ricky Tran is NOT your man. If you are looking for someone extremely sharp with numbers, someone who lives and breathes sportsbetting, someone with a vast network of contacts and information, someone who will treat you like a business partner, and someone who will treat your money like it's his own, then Ricky Tran IS your man. 

The "Old Guard" in the handicapping industry is still somewhat reluctant to accept the fact that times have changed. Ricky represents a new breed of handicapper. Youthful, enthusiastic, technically savvy and up to date with the latest tools of the trade; but he's not shy to trust his gut on any given bet and ignore the stats. Tired of the same old square bets you get from other handicappers? Join with Ricky today and get his razor sharp picks and angles!

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