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Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Jan 21, 2018
Vikings vs Eagles
UNDER 39 -102 Lost
Play Type: Premium

*Subscriber Only Pick*

Under 39

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Jan 21, 2018
Vikings vs Eagles
-3 +100 at 5Dimes
Play Type: Top Premium

This matchup is very interesting to me. First of all, let’s talk about the perception: The Eagles used their home field advantage, windy conditions and defense to beat an inefficient Falcons team 15-10 at home last week. Nick Foles didn’t get punished for bad throws and their defense did their job against laughable play-calling by Steve Sarkisian. I expected a close game and it was a solid win by the Eagles. But the perception on the Falcons was way too high which makes that win better than it was. Their run game got hyped, but it was basically just one solid drive. Overall, the Igglez had 3.0 yards per carry against a bad run defense. Nick Foles is a significant downgrade from Carson Wentz and the truth lies in the numbers over his sample size starting with the Giants game, the first game he was the starter. With Nick Foles, the Eagles offense produced 5.35 net yards per pass attempt which would rank 28th in the league, right ahead of the Colts, Browns, Packers and Ravens. With Nick Foles under center, the Eagles offense produced 3.5 yards per carry which would rank 30th in the league, right ahead of the Lions and Cardinals. With Nick Foles under center, the Eagles offense produced a 3rd down conversion rate of 30.2% which would rank 32nd in the league. Considering all that, they played vs the Giants, Raiders, Cowboys (3 drives) and the Falcons. The Vikings defense is way ahead of that bunch.

The Vikings won against the Saints by a miracle. The truth is, the Vikings started off 17-0 and led the game for the first 57 minutes. One of the best offenses in the league took care of short fields and Drew Brees delivered some awesome throws against a tiring defense who lost their starting free safety. For the Saints getting a lead at any point during that game was almost a bigger miracle than the Diggs-touchdown at the end. The Vikes flat out dominated one of the best teams of 2017 for the major part of the game. The Vikings are the better team, period. The Eagles have been staying at home for a month now and I read a lot about how good their defense has been in their last four home games: 3 pts vs Bears, 10 pts vs Raiders, 6 pts vs Cowboys & 10 pts vs Falcons. The best offense of those four teams were the Falcons and they don’t really come close to the Vikings offense. Vikings OC Pat Shumur has implemented an efficient offense featuring two awesome WR's with great play-calling that just needs to be executed properly. Case Keenum does just that. This Vikings team presents a matchup the Eagles haven’t faced in weeks.

The Eagles have a great offensive line, without a doubt. But it’s a different matchup than last week as the Vikings defense is a complete unit, provides great front four pressure, can stop the run and cover guys in space. The only weak spot on the Eagles line is LT Halapoulivaati Vaitai. He is going to line up against stud Everson Griffen and that’s a terrible matchup as Griffen is going to slide past Vaitai by speed and bull rushes. Vaitai just cannot handle him. That puts Nick Foles under consistent pressure from his blind side or forces Doug Pederson to double Griffen with a 6th OL, TE or RB. However he plays Griffen, it’s going to disrupt the Eagles’ gameplan a bit. Eagles are normally quite successful, but if they can’t run the ball efficiently on the Vikings front seven as I expect, Nick Foles is gonna be in a lot of long third down situations and that isn’t a good idea. The Vikings defense ranks 1st in third down conversion rate as they allow only 25% of third downs to be successful.

On the flip side, the Vikings offense doesn’t have an easy matchup either. The Eagles have one of the best 4-3 defensive line in the league and they are going to win their fair share of matchups in the trenches against a Vikings offensive line that has been playing solid, but gave up a lot of pressures. Vikings will struggle to run and the Eagles will be able to move Keenum off his spot, but I give the Vikings a much better edge than the Eagles offense on the other side. Reason 1) Case Keenum’s 55.7% completion percentage under pressure has been the league’s best and his 10.7 sack conversion rate was the 2nd-best. Not only did Pat Shumur a good job with excellent scheming, Keenum also spent 2000+ plays in the virtual reality room, getting adjusted to every kind of situation / blitz / pressure and playing through all the plays again. Reports say that it helped him a lot. 2) The Vikings have maybe the best WR tandem in the league and they have a solid matchup against the Eagles CB's group. Shumur will put Keenum in pass-first situations and use the phenomenal quick route running of Diggs and the great ability to adjust at the catch point by Thielen to provide Keenum with a lot of quick options and also just 'throw it up' options. The Eagles defense will absolutely get their stops and they are also good to pick Case Keenum off, but the passing efficiency and the great opening drive scripts by Shumur might just be too overwhelming for them.

The stadium is going to go nuts and the Philly crowd will bring the hammer with all the shepard masks. However, the weather conditions aren’t an advantage for the Eagles this time as weather reports call for 40°F and almost no winds. That favours the Vikings passing offense again. Nick Foles will struggle more than Case Keenum, the Vikings defense will create more stops and possibilities for turnovers. The Vikings offense should be able to score in the 20's and should stand much tougher with a lead than they did last week against the Saints. Vikings win this one and I am expecting a 24-13 kind of score.

Minnesota Vikings -3

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Jan 21, 2018
Jaguars vs Patriots
UNDER 46½ -108 Won
Play Type: Top Premium

Between their games vs Bills and Steelers, no one believed in the Jaguars. They were a better team than the Steelers in terms of efficiency and showed up big time at Pittsburgh. Now everyone believes in them again and Jalen Ramsey is already talking about the Super Bowl. It’s fascinating how the perception changes and the Jaguars are a prime example because their variance over the season has been extremely high. We saw a total of 97 points last Sunday but I am expecting a completely different game this time at Foxboro. A low scoring game.

The Patriots defense got shredded the first six games, allowing 400+ yards in each of those. Since week 7, they allowed 400+ yards just once, at Pittsburgh. Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia did a great job adjusting their defense towards playing highly efficient. The Patriots defense ranks #1 in yards per point – they find ways to not lot opponents score. Since the game against the Panthers, they have given up 20+ points just twice in 13 games. Belichick knows how to attack opposing weaknesses and rob strengths. He will stack the box, play a lot of QB contain and will likely show a lot of cover 1 looks with man coverage. He will force Bortles to straight up beat them with his accuracy and I highly doubt that Bortles will be able to do that. He is at his best when playing off play-action behind an efficient run game and the Pats will try their best to shut down the run game. They held Derrick Henry to 2.3 yards per carry last week which made Mariota force a lot of throws. I don’t see the Jaguars offense scoring 20+ in this one, I see more field goals than touchdowns.

The most interesting part is the flip side – Pats offense vs Jaguars defense. The Jaguars are at their best when they are lined up vs 3+ WR's. Teams like the Niners or Titans played a lot of 12 / 21 / 22 personnel against the Jaguars and were highly successful. The Patriots will know that. They won’t attack Bouye and Ramsey on the outside. They also don’t have WR's like Martavis Bryant or Antonio Brown who make great adjustments towards the catch point. I expect the Pats to look to run it up the gut and come out in a lot of 12 or 21 personnel with 2 WR's lining up outside and tie up Ramsey and Bouye. Then they are going to use a lot of pre-snap motions to identify coverages and find their matchups in the short passing game via Gronk, Burkhead, Lewis and White. Stretch the field, send Gronk down the seam and pick your matchups. With runs and short passes, the Pats are likely to control / eat the clock which is a huge bonus for a low scoring game. At the end it’s still the Jaguars defense with tremendous front-four pressure against an average offensive line so it’s not that I expect the Pats to score every drive. The Jaguars will make stops. But I also don’t see them going high-pace on offense. I really expect a low scoring affair with the Pats coaching staff dominating the matchup and Blake Bortles. It’s not that I do not see any chance of an upset, because the Jags have been a highly efficient team over the course of the season (equally efficient to the Pats). I think Pats at home should get it done in a low scoring affair.

Under 46.5

*Update* Brady's injured finger boasts well for this pick.


Age: 29

Born: Hong Kong

Bio: Ricky Tran's destiny has always been sports betting. The "Asian Assassin" was exposed to the horse racing and gaming industry from a very early age through his family's involvement. It was there that Ricky learned the basics of handicapping and wagering. His experience was soon being applied to all forms of sports betting and he started to see a great deal of success at an early age.

Ricky initially viewed sports, like most, as a fan. However, he soon found himself being more challenged by the gaming aspect. Being a fan was fine, but being able to break down a game's inner workings and nuances, with an unbiased and analytical mind, would give him the advantage he needed to enter the sports betting arena. Today, after several years of highly successful sports betting, Ricky Tran has the the type of lifestyle that most can't even imagine. Ask around and you'll learn that Tran is widely regarded as one of the brightest stars of the new generation of handicapping. 

There are many choices out there for those looking to find just the right handicapper. If you're looking for "locks" and "can't lose systems," Ricky Tran is NOT your man. If you are looking for someone extremely sharp with numbers, someone who lives and breathes sportsbetting, someone with a vast network of contacts and information, someone who will treat you like a business partner, and someone who will treat your money like it's his own, then Ricky Tran IS your man. 

The "Old Guard" in the handicapping industry is still somewhat reluctant to accept the fact that times have changed. Ricky represents a new breed of handicapper. Youthful, enthusiastic, technically savvy and up to date with the latest tools of the trade; but he's not shy to trust his gut on any given bet and ignore the stats. Tired of the same old square bets you get from other handicappers? Join with Ricky today and get his razor sharp picks and angles!

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