Free Betting Advice

Teddy Covers Teddy Covers
I moved to Las Vegas to bet on sports as a full time professional in 1998, and I’ve been doing it successfully here in Sin City ever since.
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Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 19, 2017
Wizards vs Raptors
UNDER 212½ -110 Won
Play Type: Premium

Take Washington – Toronto UNDER (#703-704)

My clients and I have cashed several winning bets riding the Wizards under-the-radar 7-0 Run to the Under.  I have no hesitation coming right back with another Under wager in early start action today, a game where Wizards sparkplug point guard John Wall will be limited (knee) if he suits up at all.  Let me start with an excerpt from my Wizards Under write-up from Friday Night.  Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities:

“Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not happy with his team’s collective defense through the opening stretch of the season and he wasn’t shy about letting his team know about his displeasure.    And this veteran squad has responded to Brooks tutelage.  Since allowing 122 and 130 points in back-2-back home losses to the Suns and Cavs to open November, the Wizards have stepped it up on the defensive end of the court in a big way.  They’ve cashed seven straight Under bets as a result, an emerging trend worth riding tonight.”

“John Wall, following another shutdown defensive effort: “We took on the challenge of trying to guard our man one on one. When guys were getting beat back door, someone was there to help. We just took care of each other’s back, no matter what.”  Bradley Beal, following a win at Miami in the first half of this home & home set: “We have had success keeping teams under 100 points and getting wins. When we continue to have a defensive mindset, we're a really good team. We showed a glimpse of it (Wednesday)."

But Brooks was not amused by the Wizards defensive effort against Miami in the rematch on Friday, despite the fact that the Heat were held to 91 points on 41% shooting.  “We got down on ourselves. When we got down on ourselves, we put our heads down instead of running back and making up for it on the other end. The stats basically tell you that. They had 19 fast-break points in the first half."  I’m expecting a step-up effort defensively from the Wizards today, and the Raptors just held the Knicks to 84 points on Friday Night in a strong defensive showing of their own.  Bottom line – I’m going to ride this emerging Wizards Under trend, with the markets not seeming to show much interest in it…..yet!  Take the Under.

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Ravens vs Packers
-2 -106 at betonline
Play Type: Free

Take the Baltimore Ravens (#457)

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We’ve seen the Packers offense for three games without Aaron Rodgers now, and Green Bay hasn’t been able to move the football effectively in any of them. 

 Yes, the Packers were able to beat lowly Chicago by a TD last week –playing with a rookie QB in a game where Bears head coach John Fox literally gave away a touchdown with an ill-fated challenge.  But they gained only 5.3 yards per play for the afternoon, converted only one of their three red zone chances into touchdowns, and did not pass the ‘eye test’ any more than they did the previous week in a Monday Night Football home loss to the Lions.

To make matters worse for the Packers, the injury bug continues to bite Mike McCarthy’s squad.  Their offensive line is riddled with key losses once again, with Brian Bulaga placed on IR and three starters listed as questionable for Sunday.  They’ve got injuries all over the place on defense too, with Morgan Burnett, Nick Perry and Kevin King all questionable. 

It doesn’t stop there either.  Packers running backs Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones, who have kept the pressure off Brett Hundley, are both banged up as well, with Jones out until December.  And perhaps most importantly of all, Hundley hurt his hamstring last week.  For a mobile QB who is at his best when moving out of the pocket and throwing on the run, that is most assuredly an impact injury, especially against the Ravens stout defensive front. 

John Harbaugh’s teams have enjoyed great success off the bye.  The Ravens are 7-2 SU after bye weeks in the Harbaugh era, including 2-1 on the road. That includes a 4-0 SU record against teams that enter the game with a winning record, like they’ll face here against the 5-4 Packers.  Unlike Green Bay, Harbaugh’s squad is getting healthier; excellent news for a squad that was riddled with injuries right from the start of training camp.  His quote: “I feel like we are more full strength than we have been all year.”

The Ravens season long statistics stink, in large part due to all the early injuries they suffered.  Their 4.4 yards per play on offense, their -0.5 yards per play differential between offense and defense and Joe Flacco’s career worst 72.7 QB rating all look ugly for wiseguy bettors who peruse those stats closely.  That ensures we’re NOT going to see any kind of significant market support for Baltimore this week, despite the fact that they are the superior and healthier squad, rested and ready off their bye.  With Jeremy Maclin and Danny Woodhead both expected back on the field this week, those season long stats are more misleading than accurate for the Baltimore offense moving forward.  Take the Ravens.

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Chiefs vs Giants
OVER 45 -110 Lost
Play Type: Premium

Take KC – New York Giants OVER (#453-454)

I don’t trust this Chiefs defense one iota.  KC has gone 1-3 SU since their 5-0 start because they haven’t been able to stop anybody.   A struggling Raiders offense that hadn’t worked in more than a month picked apart the KC pass defense to the tune of 417 yards and 31 points.  The following week, Oakland was shut down again.  Then a Broncos team with no passing game whatsoever and an injury riddled, struggling offensive line run the ball all night against the Chiefs; to the tune of 5.7 yards per carry, 177 yards on the ground.  The following week, Denver’s offense couldn’t move the football.

Then the Chiefs faced Dallas right before their bye.  It was more of the same: four TD’s in four red zone tries behind a balanced attack.  Even after the bye, make no mistake about it – KC does NOT have a good defense; unable to stop the run OR the pass right now.  From a yards per play standpoint, KC is tied for #31 in the NFL on defense.  And the Giants offense that finally moved the football last week:  19 first downs, 374 yards, 5.9 yards per play; scoring two TD’s in three red zone tries. 

The Chiefs are tied with the Saints for with the most explosive offense in the league, averaging 6.2 yards per play.  That’s bad news for the Giants defense – they’re the ones tied with KC at #31 in the NFL, allowing a full six yards per play.  The G-men have shown plenty of defensive quit in recent weeks, allowing 82 points in their last two ballgames.  The G-men are a veteran squad that expected better this season; showing a clear disconnect with the coaching staff.   Expect a handful of big play TD’s and a minimal number of red zone stops….. Take the Over.

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Cardinals vs Texans
+1½ -110 at 5Dimes
Play Type: Top Premium

Big Ticket: Take Arizona (#461)

From all indications, we can stick a fork in the Houston Texans right about now, because they are done.  Think about what this squad has been through since the start of training camp.  A hurricane severely disrupted their preseason.  Their head coach cost them potential upsets at New England and Seattle with inane late game decision making.  Their owner infuriated his players with his remarks at a well-publicized meeting in an atmosphere of racial tension. 

Their two best defensive players got knocked out for the year in a national TV home beatdown by KC.  Their pro bowl offensive tackle held out, came back for a couple of weeks and then was traded at the deadline.  And then, the final straw, was when their sparkplug, QB Deshaun Watson, in the midst of setting all time rookie records, went down in practice.  Talk about going through the ringer!

Tom Savage is god-awful.  The Texans immediate, immense improvement once Watson took over as the starting QB was no accident.  In the three games that Savage has started this year, the Texans scored a grand total of three offensive touchdowns, exactly one per game.   They are 0-3 in those games, losing twice as a favorite (-6 and -5.5).  All three of those losses came by double digits against the pointspread.

Savage has completed only 47% of his passes, not throwing at an NFL level.  There’s a reason that the Texans have brought in a half dozen QB’s since drafting Savage – they know he shouldn’t be out there.  Deep threat Will Fuller won’t play this week, an underrated key to Houston’s gameplan.  The Texans aren’t primed to score many points here, and this defense isn’t stopping anyone; picked apart consistently since Watt and Mercilus went down.

Arizona continues to fight the good fight, and Blaine Gabbert is an undervalued commodity in this equation.  The Cardinals, too, have suffered the injury bug in a big way this season.  Yes, they’ve suffered a couple of ugly, embarrassing losses at Philly and against the Rams in London – two elite teams, mind you.  But we’ve seen plenty of fight in Bruce Arians squad – two wins and a hard fought loss against the Seahawks last week.  They’ve had extra prep time here off the Thursday game, and with 40 career starts under his belt and the ability to scramble out of the pocket, Blaine Gabbert is a QB I want my money on this week. 

Arians, talking about Gabbert at the end of the preseason: “I've been very pleased. Short-term, I'd be very comfortable if he had to play for us. Long-term, if he continues at this rate, he could be a starter.” Arians this past week, when asked why Gabbert has such a bad reputation as an NFL QB : “He was on really shitty teams.”  Which he was; playing behind arguably the worst offensive lines in the NFL in both San Francisco and Jacksonville.  Arizona’s offensive line isn’t great, but it’s better than anything Gabbert has played behind in his career!  This game ain’t no pick ‘em – Arizona is the superior, harder playing squad, primed to win on Sunday.  Big Ticket: Take the Cardinals.

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Bucs vs Dolphins
PK -105 at betonline
Play Type: Premium

Take Tampa Bay (#455)

I’m going to keep this one short and sweet.  When we get a chance to bet against the Dolphins in a pick em priced game, we should have no hesitation making that bet.  Miami has shown plenty of ‘quit’ in recent weeks, a team with the worst yards per play differential in the NFL – they gain 4.5 but allow 5.7, even worse numbers than the dismal Giants, Browns or 49ers. 

Those numbers aren’t fraudulent.  The Dolphins have stolen more than their fair share of wins they didn’t deserve this season (missed field goal by the Chargers, Matt Cassel at QB vs. the Titans,  very lucky comeback win vs. the Falcons, Matt Moore getting hot late vs. the Jets).  This is a squad that could easily be sitting at 1-8 or 0-9 and being priced in the same range New York, Cleveland and San Fran are priced in the markets at this stage of the campaign.

The Bucs defense showed pride last week in a dominating showing against the Jets, giving a disappointing squad a real spark of life heading into their matchup with the ‘lots of quit’ Dolphins.  From a talent standpoint, there’s no comparison between these two teams – Tampa has the playmakers on both sides of the ball.   And frankly, we should expect Jay Cutler mistakes, and when those mistakes happen, I’m not expecting the home team to respond well….  Take the Bucs.


Some ‘cappers need a detailed biography.  Teddy doesn’t – a quick google search shows quite clearly how big of an impact this longtime Las Vegas professional has had in the sportsbetting world since moving to Vegas to become a full time bettor back in 1998. You can watch Teddy on Netflix during the week of the Super Bowl in the sportsbetting documentary ‘Life on the Line’. You can read about Teddy in the New York Times. You can read Teddy’s college basketball analysis on Teddy talking NFL?  Check out Bloomberg TV!! Teddy talking March Madness?  How about on CBS! The list goes on and on.  Teddy gets the national publicity because he’s earned it; delivering a career filled with very satisfied clients…..