Free Betting Advice

Teddy Covers Teddy Covers
I moved to Las Vegas to bet on sports as a full time professional in 1998, and I’ve been doing it successfully here in Sin City ever since.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 22, 2018
Wizards vs Mavs
Wizards
-1½ -115 at BMaker
Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

Take Washington (#713)

Washington was in a world of hurt as they travelled to Detroit last Friday Night.  The Wizards had gone from thinking about a #2 or #3 seed in the East to just worrying about making the playoffs at all while in the midst of a 2-4 SU, 0-6 ATS run.

The Wiz lost at home to Utah last week, prompting this quote from owner Ted Leonis after the game: “They’re playing like they’re too cool for school.”  But things got worse, culminating in a truly ugly 133-109 loss at Charlotte.  Head coach Scott Brooks: “It’s unacceptable the way we competed. We’re going to have to change some things and make sure we’re all going to compete. If not we’re going to have find guys who are going to compete.”

So how did the Wizards respond to that adversity?  By playing their best offensive game in weeks, hanging 76 points against the Pistons in Detroit – AFTER halftime!  John Wall, following the game: “The way we just got whooped the other day, we definitely wanted to come back and get a win.  We're a team that's just got to find some consistency on both ends of the floor."  I’m looking at the Wizards as a hungry team right now, and something of an undervalued commodity in the betting markets.

That’s not the case for the Dallas Mavericks!  Dallas enjoyed an extended ATS hot streak following their 2-14 SU start, 17-6 ATS in their next 23 ballgames (16-6-1 vs. the closing line).   But, as is often the case with lottery bound squads, positive momentum doesn’t last forever. 

The Mavs are just 2-6 SU in their last eight games, the wins coming against lowly Orlando and struggling Charlotte.   They’re struggling defensively right now and getting killed on the boards on a nightly basis.  Nor do the Mavs have much of a home court edge these days, losing SU on this floor to the likes of the Lakers, Knicks, Bulls and Suns in recent weeks.  Cheap price to lay with the superior squad in ‘step-up’ mode right now!  Take the Wizards.

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 23, 2018
Nets vs Thunder
Nets
+10 -102 at 5Dimes
Play Type: Premium

Take Brooklyn (#505)

My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting Brooklyn in their outright upset win at Detroit on Sunday.  This isn’t new or different – the Nets have been cashing winning bets as a road underdog all year, to the tune of 15-7 (68%) for the full season on the highway.  Catching +4 or higher, the Nets are 19-7 YTD.  And they’ve been great off a win too, 6-0 ATS in their last six tries off a SU victory.

Brooklyn was +7 in Mexico City against OKC last month; a game the Nets won in outright fashion, rallying back from a 16 point deficit & proving they can match up with this Western Conference contender.  Kenny Atkinson’s squad has cashed one winning bet on the highway after the next of late; a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.  Plain and simple – the Nets are completely off the national radar; they’re lottery bound once again, but they’re playing well enough on both ends of the court to be a consistently undervalued commodity; a ‘bet-on’ squad right now.

That’s not the case for OKC.  The Thunder have been OVER-valued from Day 1 this season – only the Cavs have a worse spread record than OKC’s 19-27 ATS mark.  At -4 or higher, the Thunder are 9-20 ATS, a pointspread disaster area.  And from a spot standpoint, this stands out:.  The Thunder have NOT been able to get up against lesser foes, a combined 4-5 SU against the bottom three teams from each conference.

Carmelo Anthony said it best: "We know we can not only play with the teams that are considered to be the best in this league. Not only play with them but win. We're very capable of winning those games and we've showed that playing against the best team that we can beat the best teams. I don't think that's ever been our issue as a team, it's beating the teams that we're supposed to beat. Sometimes it's night and day."  Off their huge national TV win against the Cavs, expect some ‘night and day’ differential tonight in a major flat spot for the big home favorite.  Take the Nets.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Jan 23, 2018
Texas A&M vs LSU
Texas A&M
-2½ -105 at BMaker
Play Type: Top Premium

Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M (#553)

My clients and I cashed a wire-2-wire winner with Texas A&M on Saturday in their double digit win over Missouri.  Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up:

“On Christmas Day, Texas A&M was ranked as the #5 team in the country.  Then the injury bug started to bite, and it bit hard.  Of the ten players in Billy Kennedy’s base rotation, only two guys have been able to suit up in every game.  Starters DJ Hogg, Admon Gilder, Duane Wilson and Robert Williams all missed time, and the Aggies faced a very difficult opening part of their SEC schedule. 

“The end result from all those injuries?  The Aggies are now sitting with a 1-5 record in SEC play.  They’re at home.  And they’re finally healthy again, coming off three strong days of practice sessions since their losing-streak snapping win over Ole Miss.  And with all the key cogs healthy, let’s not forget how much playing time the role players have gotten in recent weeks; leaving the Aggies with depth, talent and the level of hunger that I’m looking for out of my home favorites.”

With the win over Missouri, A&M is now 2-5 in SEC play.  Remember, this team was #5 in the nation less than a month ago, and they’re healthy now.  I’ve got a big ‘BUY’ sign on Billy Kennedy’s squad and their #12 ranked effective field goal percentage allowed on defense after holding the Tigers to 49 points over the weekend.

Wilson, Gilder and Williams all missed the first meeting with LSU this season, while Hogg was very rusty in his first game back.  The game was one that Texas A&M remembers well; a one point heartbreaking defeat at home thanks to a pair of three pointers in the final 12 seconds from LSU frosh point guard Tremont Waters, turning a five point Aggies lead into a loss.  Now, with all hands on deck, A&M gets their shot at revenge; an elite, motivated ballclub that is undervalued in the betting markets following their rough start to SEC play.

LSU went 2-16 in SEC play last year, and Will Wade’s first season on the job has had plenty of hiccups, particularly at home.  The Tigers are just 2-4 SU in their last six home games where crowd support has been tepid at best, and their current three game overall skid doesn’t have the team playing with much confidence right now.  Clear ‘bet-on’ vs. clear ‘bet against’ in a short turnaround revenge spot has this bettor stepping up his wager to Big Ticket size tonight!  Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M.

SERVICE BIO

Some ‘cappers need a detailed biography.  Teddy doesn’t – a quick google search shows quite clearly how big of an impact this longtime Las Vegas professional has had in the sportsbetting world since moving to Vegas to become a full time bettor back in 1998. You can watch Teddy on Netflix during the week of the Super Bowl in the sportsbetting documentary ‘Life on the Line’. You can read about Teddy in the New York Times. You can read Teddy’s college basketball analysis on ESPN.com. Teddy talking NFL?  Check out Bloomberg TV!! Teddy talking March Madness?  How about on CBS! The list goes on and on.  Teddy gets the national publicity because he’s earned it; delivering a career filled with very satisfied clients…..