Free Betting Advice

Alex Smart Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports - Consistent Long term winning results. Get the info the books do not want you to have.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 27, 2018
Reds vs Rockies
Rockies
-146 at BetPhoenix
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

MATT HARVEY (R) vs. GERMAN MARQUEZ (R)

Harvey the Mets starter is 1-2 with a 5.49 ERA overall. He went 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA in eight games (four starts) with the New York Mets and is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts for the Reds and is fade material here today in Colorado. Harvery is 0-1, 7.94 in one start at Coors Field in May 2016.COLORADO is 7-2  against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season.

The Reds have had a hard time vs RHP like Marquez, going  14-31 in their last 45 games vs. a right-handed starter and have lost 12 of 17 on the road vs orthodox pitchers.Rockies are 5-0 in Marquezs last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.

The Reds took out the Rockies yesterday by a 6-5 count ,coming from behind for the win, but it must be noted that the Rockies have won 19 straight games as a favorite of more than 125 when they are off a loss as a favorite in which they led the lead, winning by an average of more than 5 runs per game.Reds are also 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win.

Reds are 17-35 in the last 52 meetings in Colorado.

MLB  favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (COLORADO) - team with a poor SLG (.400 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or less ) -NL, ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 10 games are 51-16 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the moneyline

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  May 27, 2018
Cavs vs Celtics
UNDER 200 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

I'm betting this deciding game 7 will be an all out nasty physical affair that stays on the low side of the number. Boston will be out to pressure James and with Love out with an injury  concentrate on making the super stars life miserable.  In this series, James has averaged 39 points per game at home, 27.7 per in the three games in Boston, which is more than 11 ppg less. .Cleveland's veteran core has struggled with their offensive game in Boston and the defense I expect to be ready to compete in what should be an all out hard-core defensive tit for tat punchem out  battle.  note: BOSTON is 12-3 UNDER  at home when the line is +3 to -3 over dating back to last season with the average combined score of 195.3 ppg scored. The Celtics have also gone UNDER 8 straight times, when the line is within 3 of pick off a defeat as an away dog when going against  an opponent averaging less than 4 blocks per game, staying under by more than 20 ppg.

Also the Celtics  have  gone under 8 straight times by more than 14 points  off a game as a underdog in which they scored less than 15% of their points from free throws .Meanwhile,  Cleveland has gone under 9 straight times as a pup off a win as a home chalk  in which their opposition shot under 60% from the free throw line. Shooting badly from the charity stripe is sometimes related to exhaustion issues , which both sides will exhibit here this evening and this will also contribute to a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers might expect.

Under is 4-1 in the L/5 meetings here in Boston. Cleveland has gone under in 15 of their 21 after an ATS win which happened in game 6.

Play UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 27, 2018
Astros vs Indians
Indians
+115 at Bovada
Won
$115
Play Type: Premium

Astros RH Gerrit Cole (5-1, 1.86 ERA) vs. Indians RH Trevor Bauer (4-3, 2.35)

Gerrit Cole the Astros starter today is getting all the headlines, because of his top tier start to this campaign (5-1 1.86 ERA), but his pitching opponent and former UCLA teammate Bauer is no pushover and has garnered a stingy 1.93 ERA in his L/3 starts and is every bit as strong looking as Cole is at the moment. Bauer has not allowed  a run in his last two outings, permitting just  11 hits on just two walks  and  16 strikeouts  in 14 innings of quality work. Yesterday, the Indians showed some positive energy by blasting 4 HRs in a 8-6 win vs the Astros, and I;m betting on them feeding off that today and notch a win.

Indians are 29-13 in their last 42 home games vs. a right-handed starter and are 35-16 in their last 51 during game 4 of a series and are also 47-21 in their last 68 home games.

BAUERs team  is 14-2 in his starts  against the money line in home games against AL West opponents in his career.

BAUER is perfect  7-0  in his career when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.89 and a WHIP of 1.076.

Play on the Cleveland Indians to win on the moneyline

Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  May 27, 2018
Storm vs Aces
Aces
+6½ -110 at betonline
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Bill Lambeer has assembled some decent young talent in Las Vegas and they should not be underestimated here at home vs a Seattle team on tired legs and in an emotional letdown situation  after a hard fought come from behind over time victory vs Chicago last time out. I'l gladly takes the points with a hungry home team looking for positive momentum.

SEATTLE is 4-12 ATS  after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons and are 5-16 ats last 21 after scoring 75 points or more in 2 straight games.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - horrible defensive team from last season - allowed 75 or more points/game, after scoring 40 points  are 8-23 L21 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Vegas to cover

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 18 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 17 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.