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Alex Smart Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports. Get the info the books do not want you to have.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Oct 22, 2018
Hornets vs Raptors
UNDER 226 -107 Lost
$107.0
Play Type: Premium

The NBA season started with a lot off fast paced games as the exuberance of a new season on fresh legs made for for some high scoring affairs. Now with a few games under them, I expect the league as a whole to start to centre some thought on playing a more energy saving type of hoops.

Focusing on these two teams  the Charlotte Hornets and the Toronto Raptors  in particular it must be noted that they have now played 3 games in less in 5 days so running and gunning at full tilt for long stretches may not be sensible option  tonight if the coaches of these teams hope to keep their troops fresh during what can be a gruelling extended schedule. Also knowing the Raptors current mind set about playing a more disciplined defensive style this season behind the leagues top two way forward Kawhi Leonard, it makes a lot of sense that they will be out to slow down a Hornets team that looks to be in an offensive groove at the moment, with a more methodical approach. 

My own projections for this game suggest a maximum combined total of 220 points being scored, and with a 6 point edge according to my own numbers I feel like we have enough value to take the under here.  Also from an extensive data base of league wide trends no average combined total from a 2000 games sample size went above my 220 point projections. While new  data can change in the flash of an eye and nothing is a sure bet, I still feel we have an edge on this slightly bloated Total. Its all about slight edges in our battle with the books and their astute line making abilities.

From the six combined games these teams have played only one has seen more than 225 points scored, and that was the Raptors 117-113 win vs Washington. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 105 points or more are 24-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with a combined average of 211.5 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 22, 2018
Giants vs Falcons
Falcons
-3½ -110 at pinnacle
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

The 1-5  New York Giants enter this Monday night game reeling  have lost three games in a row, giving up more than 30 points in all three and offer up an opportunity for the Falcons to notch their second win in a row . During the Gmens  three-game losing streak, Giants quarterback Eli Manning has as many interceptions as touchdown passes, recording three of each. He has been sacked 20 times this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta QB Ryan is picking up the pace of late, as is evident by  his 354 passing yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against Tampa Bay, which has increased his total to 12 touchdown passes with no picks over the past four games. He must be licking his chops anticipation of facing a team that has only 7 sacks on the season ranking last in the league. Look for Ryan and star Wide Receiver Julio Jones to hookup for mucho yards and TDs this week on their way to a what Im betting will be a convincing win and  cover . 

NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

The Giants are 0-9 /SU ATS failing to cover by an average of more than 10 ppg as a non-divisional dog on Monday night.


NFL Road teams vs. the money line (NY GIANTS) - off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more against opponent off a home win are 5-51 SU L/35 seasons with a average point differential of 9.9 ppg clicking in on the scoreboard.

Play on the Atlanta Falcons to cover 

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Oct 23, 2018
Sharks vs Predators
Predators
-125 at 5Dimes
Play Type: Premium

Pekka Rhinne the Predators star goalie is out, and thats why their is value on this line, but Im betting his replacement and back up goalie Saros,  who has not lost a game yet this season is solid backstop to back. He has a 1.54 GAA and .945 save percentage and looks to be every bit the goalie Rhinne is and maybe even better. 

The Predators have won five straight, outscoring their opponents 20-7. They presently have the best record and goal differential (+12) in the NHL and must be respected on their own home ice . San Jose has lost 12 of their L/13 visits to this Arena, and are fade material this type of talented team that matches up very well against them.  

Play on the Nashville Predators to win on the moneyline 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Oct 23, 2018
Clippers vs Pelicans
Pelicans
-6½ -110 at pinnacle
Play Type: Premium

The Pelicans are looking explosive out of the gate to start their season, and are off back to back  DD blowout wins. They have also been money makers for their backers since late last season cashing 14 of their L/16 games overall and have been good bets at home cashing 11 of their L/14 ( NO 115  Opp  107.1)  Needless to say this an explosive team that must be respected.  Meanwhile, the Clippers 2-1 after starting their season with three straight home games now go on the road and I'm betting won't find the bayou atmosphere so welcoming. I admit the Clippers have looked cohesive despite of going through a retooling process , and can't be discounted as viable opponent, but Im betting they will be over matched here vs a Pelicans team that plays a break neck pace. 

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more are 17-86 L/22 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 84% SU with the average point differential clicking in at 9.1 ppg.

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Oct 23, 2018
Dodgers vs Red Sox
OVER 7½ +107
Play Type: Premium

Clayton Kershaw (9-5, 2.73 ERA) and Boston’s Chris Sale (12-4, 2.11 ERA) start Game 1

No doubt that these are two top quality pitcher, but this season both pitchers went over the total more often then under. Also the Dodgers  Kershaw owns a  career postseason ERA is 4.09. Kershaw top pitch the fastball has seen batters register a .292 BA during his current campaign , showing us he is not the same pitcher he once was.  Thats not a good omen for him vs one of MLBs best fast ball hitting teams.

KERSHAW is 9-2 OVER after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.7 rpg scored. 

Meanwhile, Sale the BoSox starter has not been in top form for a while now, and allowed 2 runs in 4 innings of baseball his last time out vs Houston and  is dealing with s stomach ailment of some type that might be effecting him. The Dodgers are no pushovers and they can light up the best of hurlers. 

SALE is 8-0 OVER vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average score of 10.4 rpg going on the board. 

MLB (LA DODGERS) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a top level AL starting pitcher (ERA  3.60, or less WHIP 1.300 or more ), with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 10 games are 45-22 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the OVER 

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 20 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.