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Alex Smart Alex Smart
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Alex Smart Sports- College Football Early Steam - Miami Fl vs Florida

Non Conference instate rivals the Florida Gators and Miami Hurricanes open up the 150th College Football anniversary season against each other on August 24. Which side has the ATS edge? Your 100% Guaranteed answer is locked and loaded and ready to make the books pay for taking our scholastic gridiron action. Kick off 7:30 pm et (Steam Action)

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Aug 19, 2019
Nationals vs Pirates
Pirates
+107 at pinnacle
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

The Nationals have a shot at a play off spot and the Pirates are playing for pride and rosters spots next season. However, it must be noted that the Nats have really racked up alot of innings on their bullpen  after some exciting high scoring weekend games, and after some very explosive offensive performances a regression of their out put must be expected as well as they themselves getting lit up because of the above mentioned work placed on their relievers. I know that was a long sentence, but it was a long weekend for the Nats, and a natural letdown scenario vs a non play off side, makes them susceptible in the first game of this series. 

Note: WASHINGTON is less than a break even venture on the ML going  48-51  against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons with their betting backers down more than 14.4 units. 

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (WASHINGTON) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (NL), with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 10 games are 11-34 L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Pittsburgh Pirates to win on the ML

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Aug 19, 2019
Padres vs Reds
Padres
+151 at 5Dimes
Won
$151
Play Type: Premium

Bauer, the Reds starter vs San Diego has garnered a 7.31 ERA in his L/3 starts . He now  goes up against the Fathers  for the first time this season. However his experiences vs the Padres have not been good ones as he is 0-3 with a bloated 6.28 ERA in three career starts against the Padres, with batters hitting .348 against him. Meanwhile, the Padres starter Lauer In three career starts against Cincinnati, is 1-1 along with a very stingy  1.93 ERA, and Reds batters are hitting at just a .219  vs him. Padres despite of being without rookie sensation Tatis, are value bets here tonight. 

Note:The Padres are 4-0 l/4 on the ML as a road 140+ dog after a game as a road dog in which they hit at least one home run which happened Sunday. 

MLB team (CINCINNATI) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs are 102-151 L/5 seasons for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Padres ML

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Aug 19, 2019
Royals vs Orioles
Royals
+123 at 5Dimes
Won
$123
Play Type: Premium

John Means(8-8, 3.76 ERA, 84 SO)After a decent mid season run, has now started to down trend and has  lost his last three starts. He pitched 3 2/3 innings in his most recent outing, allowing six runs to the Yankees on Aug. 13 and is fade material here today vs the KC Royals. I know Lopez his pitching opponent from the Royals may not inspire bettors, but he  has a 1-0 record with a 1.29 ERA in one career appearance versus Baltimore.

Baltimore has now has lost 12 of its last 13 games and went 0-7 on a road trip where it also took on the Yankees and while KC is not much better they do matchup well vs the Orioles and my power rankings suggest we have value on this line, making this a green light selection on the Royals. 

The Orioles have been a 200+ underdog in 13 straight games and are now chalk for the first time in while. It must now be noted that the Orioles are 0-11L/11  on the ML as chalk after a tilt  in which they struck out at least ten times which happened last time out. 

MLB team (BALTIMORE) - team with a terrible OBP (.310 or less) against a poor starting pitcher (WHI 1.600 to 1.700) -AL, with a slugging percentage of .330 or worse over their last 3 games are 25-53 L/22 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the KC Royals to win on the ML

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Aug 19, 2019
Brewers vs Cardinals
Cardinals
-123 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Dakota  (11-6, 3.82 ERA, 97 SO)Hudson put together one of his best starts of the season Wednesday, shutting out the Royals over six innings and enters this game vs the Brewers with momentum. HUDSON is 10-0 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. (Team's Record) Meanwhile, Brewers light throwing starter Zach Davies (8-5, 3.74 ERA, 78 SO) will return from his two-week stint on the injured list to face the Cardinals. The Brewers thought he needed rest after he allowed 18 runs (17 earned) in three starts before going on the shelf. Truth is the guy throws beach balls, and if it were not for his savvy baseball intelligence and ability o pinpoint his stuff, he would be consistent cannon fodder. I respect Davies, but Im not a fan of his overall arsenal (or lack there of), and considering my power rankings suggest he does not matchup well vs the batting order he  is fade material in this spot.

ST LOUIS is 15-3  against the money line in home games with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season (NL) this season. 

MIKE is 12-3  against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season as the manager of ST LOUIS.

MILWAUKEE is 9-18 against the money line vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season.

MLB team (ST LOUIS) - excellent defensive catchers - allowing 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP  2.000 or worse over his last 3 starts are 130-71 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MILWAUKEE) - team with a good SLG (.430 or more ) against a poor starting pitcher (WHI 1.550 to 1.650) -NL, with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season are 53-97 L/22 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the St.Louis Cards to win on the ML

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 20 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.