Free Betting Advice

Alex Smart Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports -Where winning means everything. Get the bankroll expanding info the books do not want you to have.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Jan 28, 2020
Villanova vs St. John's
St. John's
+4 -115 at Bovada
Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium


My College basketball selections are indepthly researched with no stone is left unturned in bringing long term winning selections to my clients. Injury reports, trends, coaching tendencies, systems, matchup discrepancies , as well as line movement and mathematical line advantages are all used to make an intelligent well thought out investment decision.

St.Johns to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Jan 28, 2020
Purdue vs Rutgers
Purdue
+3½ -110 at Bovada
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium


My College basketball selections are indepthly researched with no stone is left unturned in bringing long term winning selections to my clients. Injury reports, trends, coaching tendencies, systems, matchup discrepancies , as well as line movement and mathematical line advantages are all used to make an intelligent well thought out investment decision.

Purdue to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Jan 28, 2020
Florida State vs Virginia
Virginia
+2 -115 at Bovada
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Both teams will be following up dramatic weekend wins when Virginia hosts No. 5 Florida State in ACC  Tuesday night in Charlottesville, Va.Virginia seeks revenge in rematch vs. No. 5 Florida St. and Im betting they get it and more importantly get us the cover. Im betting they key to our money making venture will come  behind Virginia's  what is the   slowest pace in the ACC  and the best defensive efficiency numbers in the conference.

FLORIDA ST is 0-8 ATS  in road games after a home game where both teams scored 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

FLORIDA ST is 4-17 ATS L/21 after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less .The Seminoles have covered just three of their past nine games and played alot of close game which will have a negative effect on them here in this nasty environment and physical atmosphere. 

Virginia to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 28, 2020
Wizards vs Bucks
UNDER 244½ -114 Lost
$114.0
Play Type: Premium

Milwaukee has been playing some excellent defence of late, and as a result of this have gone under the set total in 5 of their L/6 trips to the hardwood. We all know Washington loves to run and gun with wreck-less abandon but after a huge back and forth tilt last time out vs Atlanta ( 133-152) regression to the mean is expected which puts this tilt closer to the 234 range, which according to my own projections gives us value on an under. 

MILWAUKEE is 24-13 UNDER versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225.6 ppg scored.

The Bucks are 0-15-1 UNDER L/16 at home with rest off a 10+ win in a road game in which they shot over 50% from the field with a combined average of 194.2 ppg with none of the games in this subset going over this total. 

NBA Teams like the Wizards are 5-25 UNDER L/30 as a road 8+ dog with less than two days rest after a game as a road dog in which a game in which their points per field goal attempt was better than 1.5 with a combined average of 195.5 ppg going on the board.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 50-19 UNDER  L/23 seasons seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 28, 2020
Nuggets vs Grizzlies
Grizzlies
PK -110 at sportsbook
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Denver has been dealing with injuries all season and is down three of its top rotation players. Power forward Paul Millsap (left knee contusion) will miss his 10th straight game, point guard Jamal Murray (left ankle sprain) will sit for the seventh straight and big man Mason Plumlee (right foot injury) has missed three games and Im betting they will be pushed here tonight in Memphis by an explosive Grizzlies team that has revenge on board for two losses in this series this season.

The Grizzlies are 13-0 ATS /SU L/13 when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent.The Grizzlies are 11-0-1 ATS /12-0 SU L/12 at home when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest after playing as a home favorite when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road.


The Nuggets are 2-17 ATS  on the road off a win as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds. The Nuggets are 0-9-1 ATS/1-9 SU on the road off a win when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road.

MEMPHIS is 12-4 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more  of their shots this season. DENVER is 0-9 ATS in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Memphis to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Jan 28, 2020
Butler vs Georgetown
Georgetown
-1 -109 at GTBets
Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Premium

Butler ended a 3 game losing streak last time out with a hard fought back and forth high octane 89-85 win vs Marquette last time out but still failed to cover for the 4th straight time. Butler looked explosive in the early part of this season, but they have fallen back down to earth of late, and Im betting their in for another tough tilt here in Georgetown vs the Hoyas this Tuesday night. Key will be  the Hoyas top tier offence ranked 2nd in the  BIG EAST in scoring (77.9 ppg) and average 82.2 ppg at Capital One Arena this season, scoring at least 80 points in their last five home games.  

.Head Coach Patrick Ewing is 4-2 in his last six outings against teams ranked among the Associated Press Top 25. 

BUTLER is 0-7 ATS in road games after a home game where both teams scored 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons. BUTLER is 0-10 ATS  in road games after scoring 85 points or more over the last 3 seasons. 

 CBB Road teams as an favorite or pick (BUTLER) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) are 10-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgetown to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Jan 28, 2020
Buffalo vs Akron
Akron
-7 -113 at pinnacle
Lost
$113.0
Play Type: Premium

  Akron  enters this game against Buffalo (4-2)  tied with Bowling Green for the top spot in the East with a 5-1 record and have won 6 of their L/7 games . The Bulls despite of a 4 game win streak are now a far cry from the team that made it to the NCAA tournament last season and rank No. 317 in scoring defense nationally and pay little attention to defence  and play all out run and gun hoops under first year coach Whitesell.  Tonight Im betting the Bulls are going to face a storm on the road, vs a Zips side with triple revenge on board . Note: The  Zips’ 45-11 SU and 35-20-1 ATS the last 56 conference home games when seeking revenge.  Whitesell is 8-20 ATS  versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42%  or better after 15+ games in all games he has coached since 1997.

CBB Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (AKRON) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 34-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

 CBB Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (AKRON) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 75 points or more 3 straight games. are 36-12 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Akron to cover 

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 20 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.