Free Betting Advice

Kyle Hunter Kyle Hunter
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Kentucky vs Georgia
Kentucky
+21½ -106 at 5Dimes
Lost
$106.0
Play Type: Free

*3 Star Free Pick* The Georgia Bulldogs were beaten badly by Auburn last week. Georgia though still has a chance to play in the playoffs if they beat Alabama in the SEC title game. Georgia has two big games coming up. They play against rival Georgia Tech next weekend. They play Alabama the week after that. It would be easy for them to take it easy on Kentucky in this spot.

Kentucky has actually played well on the road. The Wildcats won at South Carolina. Kentucky also won big at Vanderbilt last week. I don't think this game will be really close, but I also don't think Georgia will drill Kentucky here.

Georgia plays at one of the five slowest tempo's in the country. The Bulldogs played relatively close games against Appalachian State and South Carolina at home. Look for them to win, but fail to cover this big number. There are far more important games ahead for Georgia.

Take Kentucky.

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Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
NC State vs Wake Forest
UNDER 63 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

*4 Star CFB Totals TAKEDOWN* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are coming off a really high scoring game against Syracuse. The Orange play extremely fast and aren't very good on defense. That basketball-like score has created some value on the under here. 

I leaned to the under even before I saw the weather here because of the overreaction in the market, but after seeing the weather I like the under a good amount.

The Winston Salem area is expected to get 25 mph winds on Saturday night during this game. Both of these teams rank top 25 in the nation in passing efficiency adjusted for strength of schedule. They both rank worse than 65th in the nation in rushing efficiency. I expect both teams to have to run the ball more than they want in this one, and that plays into the hands of the defense.

The under is 10-1 in NC State's last 11 ACC games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. A 19-1 angle.

Take the under. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Arizona State vs Oregon State
OVER 59 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon State Beavers defense has been terrible all year. Arizona State has been solid in the passing game in recent weeks. Arizona State has scored 37 points or more five times this year. They have 81 points in the last two games alone. 

Oregon State's rushing game has been pretty good this year. The Beavers should be able to run for a lot here. Arizona State ranks in the bottom five in the country in yards per carry allowed when adjusted for strength of schedule. Overall, Arizona State is allowing 5.30 yards per carry on the year.

Arizona State's tempo has been faster in recent weeks, and Todd Graham has talked about wanting the team to continue to play very quick.

Both teams should score quite a few here.

Take the over. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
UAB vs Florida
UAB
+10½ -110 at 5Dimes
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

*3 Star CFB ATS Play of Week* This one is all about motivation. Florida has absolutely nothing to play for in this game. Florida won't make a bowl game this year. They should get pumped up about playing against rival Florida State, but why would they care about this one?

Bill Clark has done a masterful job with UAB, and the Blazers have a chance to win on the big stage here. This would mean a ton for the program. The Blazers have picked up 7 wins already this year when their season win total was 2.5. They are a team full of gritty players who fight hard to the end. There is a huge motivational edge for UAB.

This is a game with a low total, and I'll take the 10.5 points with the team that should be excited for a chance to make history for their school.

The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 following a loss. They are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 non conference games. UAB is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 November games. They are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 overall. A combined 24-2 angle.

Take UAB. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Connecticut vs Boston College
UNDER 50 -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston College Eagles and the UConn Huskies will both be playing with backup quarterbacks on Saturday night. Both lost their starter in their last game. That alone would make them likely to be more conservative, but add poor weather to the mix and we should see a lot of conservative play calling.

This game is being played at Fenway Park. The wind is supposed to pick up during the game and the rain is forecast to start falling during this game. By the end of the game, 20 mph sustained winds and showers should be falling. 

Look for a sloppy lower scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Iowa State vs Baylor
UNDER 53 -105 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Waco on Saturday calls for sustained winds of 25 mph with gusts of 35 to 40 mph. That kind of wind is really hard to throw a football in, especially if you are looking to go downfield at all. 

That makes the offenses game plan a lot more vanilla, and both of these defenses are better against the run than the pass. 

Iowa State isn't sure who is starting at quarterback this week since Kempt went down with an injury last week. The Cyclones have been good throwing the ball this year, but they have struggled badly running the football.

The sharp money is on the under in a big way here. There have been multiple steam moves on the under. I agree.

Take the under. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Texas State vs Arkansas State
UNDER 59 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats and Arkansas State Red Wolves meet in Jonesboro on Saturday. The forecast for this one calls for 20-25 mph sustained winds during this game. Arkansas State is very reliant on their passing game. They air it out 57% of the time on offense. That is normally how they would beat Texas State, because Texas State's secondary is weak. However, in those winds it will be hard to throw the ball.

Both teams will fall back and run the ball more often, and both offensive lines are weak. Texas State and Arkansas State both rank in the bottom five in the country in rushing offense efficiency. Both defenses are pretty good against the run. 

In a game that should feature more running, with a high total and a rolling clock, I'm going to take the under.

Take the under. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Rutgers vs Indiana
UNDER 49½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Hoosiers defense has improved an amazing amount over the last couple years. The defense has become the strength of this team under Coach Allen. In the past it was the clear weakness of Indiana's football program.

Indiana now has a top 20 defense against the run when adjusted for strength of schedule. The Hoosiers are top 30 against the pass. 

This Rutgers offense is as bad as you'll see in the Big Ten. Rutgers wouldn't be likely to score many at all here in normal conditions. 

With a forecast of 20 mph winds and 60% chance of showers, this game should be changed quite a bit by the weather. Indiana likes to throw the ball around, and they are pretty good through the air. With wind like that, I expect Indiana to be more conservative. Especially against a Rutgers offense that can't do much of anything.

Take the under. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Syracuse vs Louisville
UNDER 74 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

*4 Star CFB Totals System SMASHER* I would not have played the under here normally, but the weather makes me do it because of the extremely strong angle backing the under. 

Louisville is expected to be 53 degrees with 25 mph winds and 30-35 mph gusts during this game. There is a 70% chance of rain. That's downright brutal conditions, and it should change this game.

Syracuse plays very fast on offense. Still, they actually have been less efficient than I expected this year. The Orange rank about 40th in most pass efficiency metrics. They aren't in the top 75 in the country in rushing efficiency. They'll need that running game more than normal with conditions like this. Louisville's pass defense has been terrible this year, but adjusted for strength of schedule this Louisville defense ranks top 20 against the run.

Louisville has a dynamic offense, but the Cardinals are playing at the 62nd fastest tempo of any team in the country, meaning they aren't pushing the issue. This is an extremely high number.

Here's a great system that fits this game: In a game in week 11-13 with a total of 56 points or higher and the home team has a win percentage of 40% or better- with wind of 10 mph or higher the under is a whopping 81-35 in the last 116 contests. That's 70% unders.

Take the under here. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
SMU vs Memphis
UNDER 76 -115 Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

*4 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers and SMU Mustangs are not normally teams I'd be looking to play an under with. There is an outside factor here though. The weather is expected to be really ugly for this one. 

Memphis is expected to get 20-25 mph winds and some rain during this game. Both of these teams are very pass happy generally, but I fully expect it to be very difficult to throw the ball as normal. Will they still get some big plays? Yes. Still, this game is totaled extremely high. Everything has to go right for the over when the number is set like this. With weather like this, I don't think that will happen.

Games with 12 mph sustained winds and totals of 60 points or higher have cashed at 60% under in the past ten years. We can certainly assume that with rain the number would improve.

I think the elements will make the two teams more conservative. I'll go under this very high number.

Take the under. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Minnesota vs Northwestern
UNDER 46 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

*3 Star Play Under* The long term forecast calls for sustained winds of 22 mph here and gusts of 30 mph during the game. That's some intense wind that really changes the game. Both of these offenses have struggled for much of the season. The defenses are clearly better than the offenses here. Add in the weather factor, and I have to take the under.

Games with 10 mph wind or higher and a temperature of 54 degrees or lower in the last 3 weeks of the regular season are 156 unders and 88 overs (63.9%) unders in the past 10 years. This one easily fits the criteria with a 45 degree temperature and 22 mph winds.

Look for both teams to run more than normal in a low scoring battle here.

Take the under.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Texas A&M vs Ole Miss
OVER 69 -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

*4 Star Play Over* Taamu has been terrific at quarterback for Ole Miss. He is completing better than 73% of his passes. Ole Miss' tempo has been even faster since he took over as well. The Rebels offense ranks in the top 15 in pace of play on offense. Texas A&M ranks in the top 20 in tempo as well. There will be a bunch of possessions in this one.

Texas A&M's offense has gotten quite a bit better as the season has moved on, and they are up against a weak defense. Ole Miss has an explosive offense that scores quickly.

Take the over. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Michigan vs Wisconsin
UNDER 43 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

*5 Star TOP Play Under*

The Michigan Wolverines and Wisconsin Bagders meet on Saturday in a huge Big Ten clash. Both of these teams like to run the football consistently. That plays to the strength of these defenses. Look for a bunch of running plays and a very slow pace between two teams who are extremely deliberate in their offensive styles.

Also, the early weather forecast here calls for extremely strong winds and cold temperatures for this game.

Games with 10 mph wind or higher and a temperature of 54 degrees or lower in the last 3 weeks of the regular season are 156 unders and 88 overs (63.9%) unders in the past 10 years

Take the under big.

*This number is moving down as people see the weather report. I would play this for a top play down to 39 points, and four 4 stars below that. Thank you* 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Air Force vs Boise State
OVER 56 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

*4 Star Play Over* The Boise State Broncos offense has really gotten it in gear of late. Air Force is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Falcons are allowing 6.51 yards per play, which is 118th out of 130 teams in college football.

Boise State's offense led the comeback vs. Colorado State last week. They should put up a big number here. 

Air Force's offense is good enough to put up some points, especially as they play faster when behind.

Take the over. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
South Alabama vs Georgia Southern
UNDER 47 -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

*3 Star Play Under* South Alabama is great at making games low scoring. The Jaguars defense is one of the best in the Sun Belt. They have been particularly good when it comes to stopping the run. 

Georgia Southern ranks in the bottom ten in the country in tempo. They are running the triple option, so every possession takes a lot of time off the clock. 

The meeting between these two last year was 24-9. A game in the 30's here shouldn't be a surprise either.

Take the under. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Nov 18, 2017
Purdue vs Iowa
UNDER 44 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

*5 Star TOP Play Under*
The Purdue Boilermakers offense has struggled in recent weeks, but the defense has been tremendous. Iowa's offense couldn't do anything last week in Wisconsin, but the defense made several strong stands.
The early weather forecast calls for 23 mph winds during this game, which changes the game in a big way. It will make both teams more conservative.

Games with 10 mph wind or higher and a temperature of 54 degrees or lower in the last 3 weeks of the regular season are 156 unders and 88 overs (63.9%) unders in the past 10 years

I like this one to stay very low scoring.

Take the under big. 

*This number is moving down as people see the weather report. I would play this for a top play down to 40 points, and four 4 stars below that. Thanks* 

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Jaguars vs Browns
UNDER 37 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The weather forecast in Cleveland calls for 25 mph winds coming off the lake during this game. There is also a chance of snow showers throughout this one. This will be really bad conditions, and history has shown that conditions like this are great for the under.

Winds of 10 mph or more with totals of 35 or higher and a temperature of 78 or lower- the under is 57.5% in the last ten years. What about at Cleveland? In Cleveland, the under is 10-2 in the last 12 games with the wind at 10 mph or greater and temperatures of below 50 degrees. The wind changes the game at First Energy Stadium more than the average stadium in the league.

50% of the tickets written to this point are on the under, but 90% of the money is on the under. The sharps love this one and I see the value too.

The Jaguars will run the ball a ton here, but Cleveland ranks top five in the NFL in rushing defense. 

The under is 4-0 in the Jags last 4 vs. the AFC. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 250 yards or more passing. The under is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 on grass. 

Take the under. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Patriots vs Raiders
OVER 54 -113 Lost
$113.0
Play Type: Premium

*3 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots have the number one ranked pass offense in terms of efficiency. Who has the worst ranked pass defense in the NFL in terms of efficiency? The Oakland Raiders. Tom Brady should have a big game here, and I expect New England to be put up a big number.

Oakland's pass rush has been poor this year, and New England has been blocking well. When Brady has this much time to throw against a weak secondary, that generally equals great things for the Patriots offense.

Derek Carr has looked healthier of late, and the Patriots pass defense ranks 30th. Carr should hook up with his receivers in the open field several times as well.

The elevation is a positive in Mexico City in my mind for points. Tired defenses generally lead to blown assignments. 

I like this to be a high scoring game.

Take the over. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Lions vs Bears
UNDER 42 -115 Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have played four games at home this year. The highest scoring game was 23-17 (in overtime) against Pittsburgh and 23-17 against Atlanta in the season opener.

The Bears have an ultra-conservative offense now. They aren't taking many chances with Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears have the second highest running plays as a percentage of their overall offensive plays in the NFL behind only the Jaguars. 

Detroit's secondary isn't very good, but the Lions rank top ten in the NFL at stopping the run. Detroit should be ready for the running game here.

Chicago's defense has been solid in all ways this year. Detroit is awfully one-dimensional with the passing game, and with the weather forecast here that could be trouble.

There is a storm coming through Chicago this weekend and 20 mph winds are forecast at Soldier Field on Sunday. That will impact the game and make throwing more difficult and both teams will likely run more than normal.

Take the under. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Patriots vs Raiders
Patriots
-6½ -110 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The New England Patriots play the Oakland Raiders in Mexico City this week. This game is played at elevation, and that's a major factor. 

The Patriots are an organization that gets an edge every way they can, and it shows by their success on the field. New England is spending the week in Colorado and practicing at elevation so they are well prepared for the conditions.

New England's offense has been excellent in recent weeks. They are going up against an Oakland secondary that is without both of their starting cornerbacks. That should be a big problem against Tom Brady and this offense.

I consider Jack Del Rio one of the worst coaches in the NFL. We all know where Bill Belichick stands when it comes to the coaching ranks.

I expect this line to go up further, so I'm grabbing this one now.

New England's offense takes advantage of a banged up Oakland defense and rolls to a victory.

Take New England. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Eagles vs Cowboys
Eagles
-3 -117 at BMaker
Play Type: Premium

*3 Star Play on Philadelphia Eagles* The Dallas Cowboys are saying Sean Lee will likely miss this game. Lee is the heart and soul of this defense, and their numbers without him are drastically worse than they are with him on the field. 

Tyron Smith is questionable, and I would guess he either won't play here or won't be himself. He has multiple injuries and has been very hobbles. Dallas allowed 8 sacks Sunday against Atlanta after allowing a grand total of 10 all season before the Atlanta game.

The Eagles are coming off a bye week and should be well prepared here. I've been extremely impressed by the balance of this Eagles offense. Carson Wentz is the real deal and he's surrounded by some very good weapons. I like the addition of Jay Ajayi.

Dallas is a good team when healthy, but they are likely to be without several stars here.

Lay the points with the rested and healthy Eagles.

Take Philadelphia. 

*As the injury news has come in- this line has risen. I do still like Philly here as Dallas is without several very key players to their team. Thank you. * 

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