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Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Eagles/Cowboys UNDER 49 

Both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles are highly motivated for a win here Sunday night in the NFC East rivalry.  The Eagles are coming off a bad loss at Minnesota, while the Cowboys are coming off three straight upset losses.  This game will be played close to the vest, and I think points will be hard to come by in this divisional showdown. 

The Cowboys have injuries on offense that have slowed them down on that side of the ball.  Both starting tackles in Tyron Smith and La’el Collins have been out with injuries and are questionable to return this week.  Randall Cobb is battling multiple injuries, and star receiver Amari Cooper left last week’s games against the Jets with a quad injury.  Both are questionable to play this week. 

The Eagles get some good news on the injury front defensively as they are expected to get a couple cornerbacks back from injury.  Their secondary has been their weakness, but they should have it more fortified this week with the return of those two players.  But the offense has some injury issues too with LT Jason Peters, WR DeSean Jackson and RB Darren Sproles are questionable this week. 

The Cowboys are a team that like to establish the run, but they haven’t been doing that in recent weeks.  Look for them to try and get back to that this week because letting Dak Prescott throw the ball 44 times against Green Bay and 40 times against the Jets did not work.  But the Eagles have the second-best run defense in the NFL, giving up just 72.8 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. 

Based on the series history, this total has been set too high.  The Eagles and Cowboys have combined for 47 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last six meetings.  They have averaged just 38.5 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those six games, which is 10.5 points less than this posted total of 49.  There is some serious value on this UNDER Sunday night. 

Philadelphia is 8-1 UNDER vs. poor passing defenses that allow 235 or more passing yards per game over the last two seasons.  The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two years.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

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20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts -1 

I really like the spot for the Indianapolis Colts this week.  They are coming off a bye and first place in the AFC South is on the line.  That’s why I’m not concerned at all bout them having any sort of letdown following their big upset road win over the Chiefs last time out. 

The bye week came at a great time because the Colts were really banged up.  Now the Colts should get back several key players this week, including their best defensive player in LB Darius Leonard, who led the NFL in tackles last season.  They’ll be as healthy as they have been at any point in the season this week. 

The Texans could suffer a letdown following their comeback from 14 points down at Kansas City last week to win 31-24.  And they didn’t come out of that game unscathed.  They have a ton of injuries at linebacker and in the secondary, as well as the offensive line.  And those injuries to two starters up front will be where the Texans hurt the most. 

The key to beating the Texans is to sack Deshaun Watson.  The Falcons and the Chiefs weren’t able to get after him the last two weeks, but the Colts will be able to.  The Texans managed just 13 points against the Jaguars, who rank 7th in adjusted sack rate.  The Texans only managed 10 points against the Panthers, who rank 1st in adjusted sack rate.  And the Colts rank 3rd in adjusted sack rate, so they will be in Watson’s face all game long, especially going up against a banged up offensive line. 

The Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  Indianapolis is 14-3 SU in its last 17 home meetings with Houston.  The Texans are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games off an upset win as an underdog.  Houston is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Colts Sunday. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bears -3 

I’m fading the New Orleans Saints again this week.  My handicap wasn’t bad on the Jaguars last week.  I said Teddy Bridgewater and the Saints offense isn’t very good.  And they only scored 13 points against the Jaguars.  But they still won because their defense was lights out and held Gardner Minshew down. 

They keep winning every close game because Bridgewater has been a game manager and their defense has been good enough.  But the streak stops here.  The Saints are way overvalued right now due to being 5-1, but all five victories have come by one score, so they have gone 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  That’s very tough to sustain.   

The Bears are pissed off coming off a loss to the Raiders in London.  And they’ve had two weeks to get ready for the Saints as they are coming off their bye week.  I’m not concerned at all whether Chase Daniel or Mitchell Trubisky starts for the Bears because I have them power rated the same.  It looks like Trubisky is good to go, and he has the higher ceiling and more mobility.   

The last time we saw the Bears at home they were shutting down the Vikings 16-6.  And they will shut down Bridgewater and the Saints again this week.  Chicago is giving up just 13.8 points per game this season and 8.0 points per game in their two home games against the Packers & Vikings. 

The Saints are averaging just 18.3 points and 278 yards per game on the road this season.  This is the best defense that Bridgewater will have seen yet.  The Saints are giving up 374 yards per game on the road and getting outgained by 96 yards per game in their three road games this year. 

The Bears are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record.  The Bears are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games overall.  They have had a great home-field advantage over the past few seasons.  The Saints have notoriously struggled in road games outdoors on grass because it neutralizes their team speed.  And it’s worth noting their best playmaker in Alvin Kamara is banged up right now.  Take the Bears Sunday. 

25* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rams/Falcons OVER 53.5 

Expect plenty of offensive fireworks in this game between the Rams and Falcons Sunday played inside the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.  It’s perfect conditions for a high-scoring affair between two of the better offenses in the NFL, but also two of the worst defenses in the league. 

The Falcons rank 7th in total offense at 391.3 yards per game.  The Rams are 12th in total offense at 370.8 yards per game.  The Falcons are 26th in total defense, giving up 388.8 yards per game.  And the Rams are 12th in total defense at 346.8 yards per game. 

The Falcons are giving up 31.0 points per game this season.  It’s like their defense has quit, but they have also been hit hard by injuries.  The Falcons have been particularly bad defensively the last two weeks.  They gave up 53 points to the Texans and 34 points to the Cardinals. 

The Rams started the season pretty well defensively against some bad offenses, but they have been very poor defensively the last three weeks.  They gave up 55 points to the Bucs, 30 to the Seahawks and 20 to the 49ers for an average of 35.0 points per game.  I expect both offenses to top 28 points in this one, and likely to get into the 30’s with the winner scoring 40-plus. 

The Rams traded for Jalen Ramsey, and he should play this week.  But they also traded away CB Marcus Peters, lost their best corner in Aqib Talib to a rib injury, and lost one of their best pass rushers in Clay Matthews to a broken jaw.  That helps explain why their defense has been so poor.  Offensively, they should get back Todd Gurley from injury this week, who they didn’t have against the 49ers. 

The Falcons are also dealing with a ton of injuries defensively as they are without S J.J. Wilcox, DT Michael Bennett, S Keanu Neal and S Johnathan Cyprien.  They could also be without CB Desmond Trufant and CB Blidi-Wreh-Wilson, who are both questionable.  These secondary injuries basically give them no chance of stopping anyone.  Matt Ryan has thrown for over 300 yards in every game this season as the Falcons are consistently playing from behind.  Fortunately, they have stayed almost 100% healthy on offense and have a ton of playmakers for Ryan. 

The Rams are 7-0 OVER in their last seven road games after possessing the ball for 26 or fewer minutes and gaining 13 or fewer first downs in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-1 in Rams last six games following an ATS loss.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Atlanta with combined scores of 55, 58, 64 and 51 points.  The OVER is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday. 

20* Patriots/Jets MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on New York +10 

The New York Jets have been a completely different team with Sam Darnold at quarterback.  In their two games with him this season, they only lost 16-17 to the Bills and upset the Cowboys 24-22 as 7-point dogs.  And they led 16-0 over Buffalo before linebacker C.J. Mosley went out with an injury, and gave up three straight scoring drives late to lose by one. 

Darnold returned from Mono last week and had a great game against the Cowboys, going 23-of-32 passing for 338 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.  They jumped out to a 21-3 lead early before the Cowboys made it interesting late with two touchdowns late in the fourth quarter.  And now, the Jets are expected to get back the quarterback of their defense in Mosley, who is one of the best linebackers in the NFL and has been out since Week 1. 

The Jets want some revenge from a 14-30 road loss to the Patriots as 20.5-point dogs.  They managed to cover that spread despite having the inept Luke Falk at quarterback.  This team had no chance with Falk, and their season numbers are skewed because of having to start him for three games.  The numbers look much better in games with Darnold at quarterback as he is simply picking up where he left off at the end of last year. 

The Patriots are dealing with a ton of injuries themselves, especially on offense where they haven’t looked the greatest in recent weeks despite facing the Bills, Redskins and Giants.  Julian Edelman and Phillip Dorsett are both banged up, but both are expected to play.  Josh Gordon was forced to leave the Giants game last week with a leg injury, and his status is questionable, though I would guess he’s more doubtful.  They lost FB James Devlin to a neck injury and their running game just hasn’t been the same since.  The Patriots only average 102 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.

The Patriots have put up historic numbers defensively thus far this season.  However, it’s worth noting that they have played the single-easiest schedule (32nd) in the entire NFL.  Five of the six teams they have played have two wins or less on the season with the one exception being the Bills, and they probably should have lost that game as they were outgained by 151 yards in that game.  The Jets have played the 10th-toughest schedule as four of the five teams they have faced are .500 or better with the lone exception being the Browns.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (New England) - a good offensive team that averages 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY Jets) - revenging a same-season loss, off a home win are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last 10 years.  New York is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Jets Monday.